Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.86 – 105.11

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

368 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.1 ±10.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 169.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 74.68Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 7.69Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.2 ±11.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 28.18Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 54.05Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 22.88Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 2423, 10156

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 2423, 10156

Auto

71.7 29%

Teleop

134.7 55%

Endgame

39.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 6731, 2084

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 6731, 2084

Auto

17.5 18%

Teleop

55.3 56%

Endgame

26.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score251.9pts

Blue projected score105.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.8
Score range: 63–294
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 235.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.1Season APEX344.2

71.7Auto17.5

134.7Teleop55.3

39.9Endgame26.4

54Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	12
teleop	200	39
endgame	85	39
foul	0	0
total	368	90

Result

Final score

368 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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