Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

457.6 – 159.15

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

469 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.7 ±9.3

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 136.32Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 169.93Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 151.35Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.3 ±11.7

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 3.61Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 102.51Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 53.03Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10973, 88, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 88, 5813

Auto

91.8 20%

Teleop

267.3 58%

Endgame

97.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1761, 8709, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 8709, 501

Auto

19.6 13%

Teleop

126.2 82%

Endgame

7.3 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score457.6pts

Blue projected score159.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 298.5
Score range: 117–500
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 231.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.7Season APEX293.3

91.8Auto19.6

267.3Teleop126.2

97.9Endgame7.3

142Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	15
teleop	256	84
endgame	110	53
foul	5	10
total	469	162

Result

Final score

469 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 7.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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