Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.8 – 248.7

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

297 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.6 ±11.1

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 22.01Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 84.2Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 33.59Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.2 ±11.2

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 47.6Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 153.32Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 47.78Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8023, 2713, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8023, 2713, 4572

Auto

25.8 19%

Teleop

87.1 65%

Endgame

21.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3323, 2877, 5563

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3323, 2877, 5563

Auto

27.4 11%

Teleop

166.0 68%

Endgame

50.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.8pts

Blue projected score248.7pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.9
Score range: 99–290
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 227.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.6Season APEX454.2

25.8Auto27.4

87.1Teleop166

21.2Endgame50.5

140Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	50
teleop	160	180
endgame	84	92
foul	0	0
total	297	322

Result

Final score

297 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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