Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.9 – 210

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 123.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±11.7

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 64.4Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 19.25Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX -1.75Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.1 ±10.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 123.42Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 31.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 55.07Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 9729, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 9729, 2876

Auto

-2.4 0%

Teleop

51.3 63%

Endgame

32.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 151, 4048

/ 100 compat

Projected

210 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 151, 4048

Auto

45.4 23%

Teleop

79.9 40%

Endgame

72.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.9pts

Blue projected score210pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.1
Score range: 41–251
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 225.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.1Season APEX481.1

-2.4Auto45.4

51.3Teleop79.9

32.6Endgame72.7

143Consistency184

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	70
teleop	104	188
endgame	64	78
foul	5	0
total	203	336

Result

Final score

203 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 123.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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