Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.76 – 221.07

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.8 ±11.1

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 32.04Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 9.23Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 192.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±9.3

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 42.28Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 158.88Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 19.91Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8023, 5735, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8023, 5735, 2877

Auto

41.8 18%

Teleop

124.8 54%

Endgame

64.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 5813, 3958

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 5813, 3958

Auto

49.2 23%

Teleop

107.0 51%

Endgame

55.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score233.8pts

Blue projected score221.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.7
Score range: 176–279
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 250.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.8Season APEX508.5

41.8Auto49.2

124.8Teleop107

64.8Endgame55.5

88Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	43
teleop	158	125
endgame	73	87
foul	5	0
total	266	255

Result

Final score

266 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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