Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.15 – 269.1

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.1 ±10.5

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 61.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 73.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 51.21Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.3 ±11.4

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 158.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 37.65Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 72.69Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 2423, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 2423, 6731

Auto

39.0 20%

Teleop

97.3 51%

Endgame

55.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 5735, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 5735, 8626

Auto

65.0 25%

Teleop

157.6 59%

Endgame

42.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score269.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83
Score range: 146–309
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 223.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.1Season APEX504.3

39Auto65

97.3Teleop157.6

55.5Endgame42.5

20Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	98
teleop	127	170
endgame	39	35
foul	0	0
total	222	303

Result

Final score

222 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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