Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.06 – 159.1

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

213 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±13.3

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 29.19Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 43.58Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 75.29Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.8 ±8.8

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 115.87Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX -11.73Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 54.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5563, 5459, 246

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 5459, 246

Auto

29.8 20%

Teleop

70.3 46%

Endgame

51.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 6201, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 6201, 4909

Auto

57.5 36%

Teleop

68.0 43%

Endgame

32.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score159.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11
Score range: 108–199
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 222.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.4Season APEX481.8

29.8Auto57.5

70.3Teleop68

51.8Endgame32.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	52
teleop	105	158
endgame	69	71
foul	0	5
total	213	286

Result

Final score

213 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 95.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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