Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.08 – 63.55

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 372

Prediction missed · off by 209.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.5 ±11

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 78.1Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 129.19Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 73.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.1 ±10.8

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -32.67Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 53.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 43.01Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8023, 8709, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8023, 8709, 3323

Auto

43.2 15%

Teleop

184.2 65%

Endgame

58.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10156, 190, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10156, 190, 4311

Auto

41.5 70%

Teleop

16.9 28%

Endgame

1.1 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.1pts

Blue projected score63.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.5
Score range: 25–320
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 219.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.5Season APEX483.1

43.2Auto41.5

184.2Teleop16.9

58.1Endgame1.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	49
teleop	113	224
endgame	26	99
foul	15	0
total	170	372

Result

Final score

170 – 372

Prediction missed · off by 209.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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