Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.64 – 258.22

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.6 ±10.7

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 119.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 141.02Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 74.45Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±11.7

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 68.15Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 114.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 75.25Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 88, 5491

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2877, 88, 5491

Auto

60.1 18%

Teleop

206.9 63%

Endgame

61.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4048, 1153, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4048, 1153, 8013

Auto

43.6 17%

Teleop

145.9 58%

Endgame

61.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score334.6pts

Blue projected score258.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.4
Score range: 220–373
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 713 vs event baseline 210.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.6Season APEX389

60.1Auto43.6

206.9Teleop145.9

61.8Endgame61.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	26
teleop	282	178
endgame	79	75
foul	0	10
total	424	289

Result

Final score

424 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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