Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.75 – 73.93

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.7 ±12.8

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 77.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 49.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 56.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.8 ±12.2

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 50.63Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 4.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 18.77Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 501, 2084, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 2084, 8626

Auto

32.4 19%

Teleop

92.9 54%

Endgame

48.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10912, 5962, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10912, 5962, 5735

Auto

33.2 46%

Teleop

30.6 43%

Endgame

7.9 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.8pts

Blue projected score73.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.8
Score range: 35–224
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 214.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.7Season APEX260.8

32.4Auto33.2

92.9Teleop30.6

48.1Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	24
teleop	130	28
endgame	30	38
foul	5	15
total	195	105

Result

Final score

195 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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