Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225 – 163.49

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 102.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.7 ±11.2

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 114.6Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 67.12Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 43.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.5 ±11.4

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 58.07Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 32.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 72.61Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 246, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

225 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 246, 2423

Auto

48.3 22%

Teleop

137.5 61%

Endgame

38.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5491, 190, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5491, 190, 8023

Auto

33.2 24%

Teleop

58.3 42%

Endgame

47.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225pts

Blue projected score163.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.5
Score range: 126–262
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 206.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.7Season APEX381.5

48.3Auto33.2

137.5Teleop58.3

38.8Endgame47.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	49
teleop	183	131
endgame	81	66
foul	0	0
total	348	246

Result

Final score

348 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 102.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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