Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
184.27 – 156.2
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
134 – 201
Prediction missed · off by 47.5 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.8 ±10.4
Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 53.79Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 87.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 42.57Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.4 ±12.2
Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 42.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 58.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 55.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4311, 501, 5962
60
/ 100 compatProjected
184.3 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4311, 501, 5962
Auto
34.6 19%
Teleop
121.9 66%
Endgame
27.9 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8626, 8013, 5459
59
/ 100 compatProjected
156.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 8626, 8013, 5459
Auto
31.2 20%
Teleop
86.5 56%
Endgame
37.5 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 76%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score184.3pts
Blue projected score156.2pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample180alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 76%, blue 75%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 28.1
- Score range
- 118–222
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
348.8Season APEX342.4
34.6Auto31.2
121.9Teleop86.5
27.9Endgame37.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 42 |
| teleop | 65 | 123 |
| endgame | 39 | 36 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 134 | 201 |
Result
Final score
134 – 201
Prediction missed · off by 47.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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