Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.43 – 170.49

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 63 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.9 ±12.2

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 50Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 105.43Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 60Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.9 ±11.4

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 50Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 60Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 60.49Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 151, 10912, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 151, 10912, 4572

Auto

39.7 18%

Teleop

132.0 61%

Endgame

43.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6731, 4909, 4048

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6731, 4909, 4048

Auto

30.4 19%

Teleop

86.1 53%

Endgame

44.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.4pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.9
Score range: 131–254
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 215.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.9Season APEX355.9

39.7Auto30.4

132Teleop86.1

43.7Endgame44.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	30
teleop	58	100
endgame	23	73
foul	5	0
total	122	203

Result

Final score

122 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 63 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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