Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.82 – 145.17

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.1 ±11.6

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -5.41Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 44.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43.2Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.3 ±11

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 9.35Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 66.22Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 69.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5902, 175, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 175, 157

Auto

20.5 27%

Teleop

32.3 43%

Endgame

22.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 1119, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 1119, 8013

Auto

19.5 14%

Teleop

76.4 55%

Endgame

42.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.8pts

Blue projected score145.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.3
Score range: 56–171
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 145.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.1Season APEX278.3

20.5Auto19.5

32.3Teleop76.4

22.5Endgame42.7

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	27
teleop	29	104
endgame	13	43
foul	0	0
total	76	174

Result

Final score

76 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Match videos

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