Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.12 – 144.81

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.3 ±8.2

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 2.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 117.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 146.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.7 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 71.1Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 13.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 60.23Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 4909, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3182, 4909, 1768

Auto

50.3 19%

Teleop

164.2 62%

Endgame

50.5 19%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5422, 9644, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 9644, 5962

Auto

31.0 21%

Teleop

82.0 56%

Endgame

34.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score267.1pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.3
Score range: 119–293
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.3Season APEX462.7

50.3Auto31

164.2Teleop82

50.5Endgame34.2

17Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	60
teleop	134	77
endgame	101	37
foul	5	30
total	261	204

Result

Final score

261 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Match videos

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