Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.51 – 96.79

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±13.3

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 23.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 44.91Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 8.96Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±10.4

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 35.52Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 31.47Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 29.8Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3464, 663, 10393

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3464, 663, 10393

Auto

15.7 22%

Teleop

34.8 49%

Endgame

20.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 4905, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 4905, 3566

Auto

25.6 29%

Teleop

29.2 33%

Endgame

32.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.5pts

Blue projected score96.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.3
Score range: 52–123
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.1Season APEX447

15.7Auto25.6

34.8Teleop29.2

20.8Endgame32.5

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	16
teleop	37	30
endgame	25	19
foul	0	0
total	86	65

Result

Final score

86 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 20.1 pts

Match videos

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