Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.57 – 118.97

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 248

Prediction missed · off by 80.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±10.4

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 33.61Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 68.52Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 70.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.7 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 62.9Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 4.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 51.46Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10063, 1119, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 1119, 8013

Auto

16.9 10%

Teleop

88.0 53%

Endgame

60.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5422, 9644, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 9644, 5962

Auto

27.8 22%

Teleop

73.6 59%

Endgame

22.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.6
Score range: 93–199
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.8Season APEX462.7

16.9Auto27.8

88Teleop73.6

60.4Endgame22.6

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	44
teleop	109	119
endgame	74	80
foul	0	5
total	205	248

Result

Final score

205 – 248

Prediction missed · off by 80.7 pts

Match videos

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