Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.38 – 55.33

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.4 ±8.2

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 18.57Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 114.47Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 145.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±12.2

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 4.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 21.91Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 29.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1735, 4909, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 4909, 1768

Auto

48.3 18%

Teleop

155.5 57%

Endgame

69.0 25%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8708, 5347, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8708, 5347, 9729

Auto

10.9 20%

Teleop

44.0 80%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score278.4pts

Blue projected score55.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 223.1
Score range: 29–304
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.4Season APEX247.3

48.3Auto10.9

155.5Teleop44

69Endgame0.3

23Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	14
teleop	227	66
endgame	27	13
foul	0	5
total	314	98

Result

Final score

314 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Match videos

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