Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.4 – 157.17

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.4 ±8.2

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 18.63Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 116.12Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 144.65Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.7 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 75.34Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 17.77Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 64.06Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1735, 4909, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 4909, 1768

Auto

51.1 19%

Teleop

166.1 60%

Endgame

57.7 21%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5422, 9644, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 9644, 5962

Auto

39.0 25%

Teleop

80.9 53%

Endgame

33.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.4pts

Blue projected score157.2pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: 130–306
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.4Season APEX462.7

51.1Auto39

166.1Teleop80.9

57.7Endgame33.1

23Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	17
teleop	166	51
endgame	59	30
foul	10	0
total	319	98

Result

Final score

319 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Match videos

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