Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.28 – 151.16

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.7 ±9.8

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 73.27Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 15.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 62.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.3 ±11

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 11.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 68.27Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 71.13Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5422, 9644, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 9644, 5962

Auto

38.9 26%

Teleop

77.8 52%

Endgame

32.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 1119, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 1119, 8013

Auto

20.9 14%

Teleop

81.7 56%

Endgame

43.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.3pts

Blue projected score151.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 124–178
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 147.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.7Season APEX278.3

38.9Auto20.9

77.8Teleop81.7

32Endgame43.1

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	24
teleop	106	107
endgame	44	73
foul	15	0
total	205	204

Result

Final score

205 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Match videos

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