Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.37 – 284.72

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

433 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±8.8

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 17.59Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 194.67Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 217.11Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.4 ±8.2

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 20.67Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 117.68Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 146.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3623, 6328, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3623, 6328, 3467

Auto

79.3 19%

Teleop

236.9 56%

Endgame

104.9 25%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 4909, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 4909, 1768

Auto

47.9 17%

Teleop

165.6 59%

Endgame

65.6 24%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score429.4pts

Blue projected score284.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.6
Score range: 259–455
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.1Season APEX571.4

79.3Auto47.9

236.9Teleop165.6

104.9Endgame65.6

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	64
teleop	241	170
endgame	149	20
foul	30	0
total	433	254

Result

Final score

433 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts

Match videos

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