Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.67 – 122.37

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 149.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.7 ±10.5

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 8.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 55.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 32.17Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.9 ±8.8

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 16.61Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 28.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 76.85Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 5902, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9644, 5902, 1071

Auto

9.2 9%

Teleop

53.1 54%

Endgame

36.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 8013, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 8013, 6328

Auto

21.0 16%

Teleop

65.9 52%

Endgame

40.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.7pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.7
Score range: 76–142
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 108.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.7Season APEX587.9

9.2Auto21

53.1Teleop65.9

36.8Endgame40.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	98
teleop	20	220
endgame	25	64
foul	10	5
total	61	387

Result

Final score

61 – 387

Prediction correct · off by 149.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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