Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.03 – 121.14

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±12.8

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 28.57Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 65.36Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 32.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.5 ±10.4

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 80.7Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 11.87Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 28.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10393, 5422, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10393, 5422, 9729

Auto

13.5 11%

Teleop

70.6 57%

Endgame

39.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 1119, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5962, 1119, 3623

Auto

16.5 14%

Teleop

68.6 57%

Endgame

35.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126pts

Blue projected score121.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.9
Score range: 103–144
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.2Season APEX322.5

13.5Auto16.5

70.6Teleop68.6

39.5Endgame35.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	136	78
endgame	38	39
foul	0	15
total	200	142

Result

Final score

200 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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