Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.71 – 80.76

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±12

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -18.74Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 210.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -3.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.4 ±12.2

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 23.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 30.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 26.58Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1099, 3467, 4169

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1099, 3467, 4169

Auto

29.7 17%

Teleop

95.7 53%

Endgame

53.6 30%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3464, 4905, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3464, 4905, 5347

Auto

6.4 8%

Teleop

48.2 62%

Endgame

22.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.7pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108
Score range: 53–217
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 136 vs event baseline 153.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.8Season APEX420.4

29.7Auto6.4

95.7Teleop48.2

53.6Endgame22.9

22Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	6
teleop	31	44
endgame	22	7
foul	0	5
total	74	62

Result

Final score

74 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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