Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.3 – 204.62

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 119.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331 ±10.8

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 120.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 15.92Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 41.79Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.1 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 178.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX -5.52Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 31.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 10393, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 10393, 3566

Auto

37.3 22%

Teleop

92.6 54%

Endgame

40.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 9644, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 9644, 175

Auto

55.3 28%

Teleop

95.3 49%

Endgame

45.0 23%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.3pts

Blue projected score204.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.3
Score range: 153–230
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331Season APEX593.1

37.3Auto55.3

92.6Teleop95.3

40.4Endgame45

11Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	87
teleop	40	159
endgame	31	118
foul	0	0
total	99	364

Result

Final score

99 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 119.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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