Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.78 – 176.38

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.7 ±12.8

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 25Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -19.43Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 8.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±10.8

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -2.78Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 142.11Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 37.05Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3464, 1099, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3464, 1099, 3623

Auto

4.3 36%

Teleop

8.4 69%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4169, 1768, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4169, 1768, 1071

Auto

24.8 15%

Teleop

83.8 51%

Endgame

55.1 34%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13.8pts

Blue projected score176.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.6
Score range: -11–201
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.7Season APEX470.7

4.3Auto24.8

8.4Teleop83.8

-0.6Endgame55.1

8Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	41
teleop	9	91
endgame	8	62
foul	10	15
total	40	209

Result

Final score

40 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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