Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.86 – 87.18

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 17.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.4 ±11.7

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 6.03Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 28.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 21.81Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.7 ±10.4

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 39.67Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 37.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 9.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3182, 9729, 1735

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3182, 9729, 1735

Auto

17.8 32%

Teleop

29.5 53%

Endgame

8.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10063, 4905, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 4905, 8708

Auto

18.2 22%

Teleop

40.7 49%

Endgame

24.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score87.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.3
Score range: 31–112
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.4Season APEX422.7

17.8Auto18.2

29.5Teleop40.7

8.2Endgame24.9

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	10	18
endgame	19	20
foul	0	0
total	56	53

Result

Final score

56 – 53

Prediction missed · off by 17.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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