Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.51 – 247.84

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.9 ±11

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 41.74Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 48.56Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 73.21Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±10.7

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 205.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 35.72Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 6.52Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 157, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 157, 1119

Auto

27.4 18%

Teleop

76.6 50%

Endgame

49.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3467, 663, 2064

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3467, 663, 2064

Auto

52.0 21%

Teleop

127.9 53%

Endgame

62.7 26%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.5pts

Blue projected score247.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.3
Score range: 139–273
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 138.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.9Season APEX455.8

27.4Auto52

76.6Teleop127.9

49.1Endgame62.7

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	72
teleop	59	185
endgame	46	84
foul	5	0
total	125	341

Result

Final score

125 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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