Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.55 – 61.64

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.1 ±11.2

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 178.73Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -2.16Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 60.98Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±11

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 9.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 43.06Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 9.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 4169, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 4169, 5422

Auto

54.5 24%

Teleop

121.4 53%

Endgame

55.3 24%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3623, 3566, 6620

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3623, 3566, 6620

Auto

15.4 26%

Teleop

26.3 44%

Endgame

18.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.6pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.9
Score range: 37–263
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 137.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.1Season APEX261.3

54.5Auto15.4

121.4Teleop26.3

55.3Endgame18.2

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	109	27
endgame	114	18
foul	0	5
total	242	65

Result

Final score

242 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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