Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.53 – 284.42

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.3 ±11.6

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 36.95Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 17.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -2.15Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.1 ±9.8

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 24.61Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 139.11Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 120.7Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10063, 5347, 5902

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 5347, 5902

Auto

-9.4 0%

Teleop

29.5 56%

Endgame

32.7 62%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3464, 1768, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3464, 1768, 4909

Auto

48.8 18%

Teleop

162.4 59%

Endgame

65.7 24%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.5pts

Blue projected score284.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -231.9
Score range: 28–309
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 136.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.3Season APEX551.1

-9.4Auto48.8

29.5Teleop162.4

32.7Endgame65.7

16Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	30
teleop	38	211
endgame	16	65
foul	0	0
total	76	306

Result

Final score

76 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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