Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.57 – 75.46

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±11

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 38.83Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 49.65Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 33.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±11.2

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 27.88Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 52.21Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX -4.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4905, 157, 175

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4905, 157, 175

Auto

28.8 25%

Teleop

55.9 49%

Endgame

29.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9729, 5962, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9729, 5962, 9644

Auto

24.9 33%

Teleop

41.6 55%

Endgame

8.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.6pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.1
Score range: 50–147
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.9Season APEX365.7

28.8Auto24.9

55.9Teleop41.6

29.1Endgame8.6

25Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	34
teleop	35	44
endgame	19	7
foul	25	0
total	111	85

Result

Final score

111 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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