Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.02 – 90.06

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±10.8

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 8.71Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 11.05Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 117.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.8 ±11.6

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 43.16Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 44.46Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 2.44Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10393, 3623, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10393, 3623, 4909

Auto

24.5 19%

Teleop

77.3 60%

Endgame

28.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 157, 663, 3182

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 157, 663, 3182

Auto

31.9 35%

Teleop

41.0 44%

Endgame

19.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137pts

Blue projected score90.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 62–165
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 153.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.8Season APEX210.8

24.5Auto31.9

77.3Teleop41

28Endgame19.3

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	23
teleop	44	6
endgame	35	0
foul	0	10
total	100	39

Result

Final score

100 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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