Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.84 – 116.17

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.5 ±9.4

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 10.42Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 204.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 5.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±10.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 129.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 12.94Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -26.24Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3623, 3467, 3182

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3623, 3467, 3182

Auto

44.0 20%

Teleop

131.5 60%

Endgame

42.6 20%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 1735, 1099

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 1735, 1099

Auto

22.0 20%

Teleop

52.9 48%

Endgame

34.6 32%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.8pts

Blue projected score116.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.7
Score range: 91–246
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.5Season APEX455.1

44Auto22

131.5Teleop52.9

42.6Endgame34.6

15Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	47
teleop	122	125
endgame	65	42
foul	5	5
total	237	219

Result

Final score

237 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 59.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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