Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.75 – 56.09

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±11.7

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 48.28Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 79.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 39.03Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.9 ±12.2

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 19.12Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 21.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 15.89Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1071, 8013, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 8013, 9729

Auto

36.6 24%

Teleop

73.9 49%

Endgame

40.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 5347, 10393

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 5347, 10393

Auto

-2.2 0%

Teleop

26.5 56%

Endgame

23.4 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score56.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.7
Score range: 32–191
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.8Season APEX269.9

36.6Auto-2.2

73.9Teleop26.5

40.9Endgame23.4

15Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	4
teleop	46	34
endgame	54	20
foul	0	0
total	120	58

Result

Final score

120 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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