Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.27 – 118.28

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.4 ±10.5

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 61.28Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 1.27Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 9.72Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279 ±11.4

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -28.75Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 115.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 31.32Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5422, 9644, 2064

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5422, 9644, 2064

Auto

19.2 25%

Teleop

43.1 56%

Endgame

15.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1099, 4909, 663

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1099, 4909, 663

Auto

39.2 33%

Teleop

58.3 49%

Endgame

22.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score118.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 48–142
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 135.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.4Season APEX279

19.2Auto39.2

43.1Teleop58.3

15.2Endgame22.5

16Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	39
teleop	20	70
endgame	11	65
foul	0	5
total	60	179

Result

Final score

60 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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