Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.41 – 220.39

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±11

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 31.28Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 62.03Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 83.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.1 ±9.8

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 38.87Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 25.8Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 155.72Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 663, 5422, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 663, 5422, 8013

Auto

34.4 20%

Teleop

88.7 51%

Endgame

52.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1071, 10063, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1071, 10063, 6328

Auto

45.3 21%

Teleop

127.3 59%

Endgame

44.3 20%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.4pts

Blue projected score220.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44
Score range: 153–243
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.5Season APEX514.1

34.4Auto45.3

88.7Teleop127.3

52.2Endgame44.3

88Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	83
teleop	118	103
endgame	43	125
foul	5	15
total	208	326

Result

Final score

208 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 68.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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