Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.66 – 37.49

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.9 ±9.8

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 7.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX 10.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 71.79Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±13.3

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -4.31Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 13.48Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 28.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9644, 3182, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9644, 3182, 1119

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

48.0 55%

Endgame

23.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4169, 2064, 3464

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4169, 2064, 3464

Auto

6.8 25%

Teleop

7.5 27%

Endgame

13.2 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.7pts

Blue projected score37.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.2
Score range: 13–114
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.9Season APEX166

15.4Auto6.8

48Teleop7.5

23.1Endgame13.2

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	56	15
endgame	14	14
foul	0	0
total	87	39

Result

Final score

87 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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