Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.09 – 185.91

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.9 ±10.5

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 188.12Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 15.39Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 61.58Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.6 ±10.8

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 33.05Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 144.9Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 7.96Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 2064, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 2064, 5962

Auto

60.2 23%

Teleop

137.3 53%

Endgame

62.7 24%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9729, 1768, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9729, 1768, 8708

Auto

33.7 19%

Teleop

111.6 62%

Endgame

34.1 19%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score265.1pts

Blue projected score185.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.2
Score range: 158–293
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 153.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.9Season APEX455.6

60.2Auto33.7

137.3Teleop111.6

62.7Endgame34.1

16Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	17
teleop	157	101
endgame	66	32
foul	5	10
total	261	160

Result

Final score

261 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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