Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.31 – 160.64

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±12.2

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 34.81Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 27.49Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 31.01Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 595.2 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 129.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 12.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 18.17Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 663, 10063, 3464

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 663, 10063, 3464

Auto

13.1 14%

Teleop

56.6 59%

Endgame

25.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 9644, 3566

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 9644, 3566

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

89.5 57%

Endgame

44.4 28%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.3pts

Blue projected score160.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.3
Score range: 70–184
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258Season APEX595.2

13.1Auto24.3

56.6Teleop89.5

25.9Endgame44.4

88Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	49
teleop	24	54
endgame	32	20
foul	5	5
total	70	128

Result

Final score

70 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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