Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.28 – 151.93

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.5 ±10.8

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 25.49Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

175Buzz Robotics

Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 24.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 119.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.7 ±10.4

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 15.89Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 73.21Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 62.83Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10393, 175, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10393, 175, 1768

Auto

26.3 17%

Teleop

82.6 54%

Endgame

44.2 29%

Strengths

· 1768 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3566, 1119, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3566, 1119, 5422

Auto

11.8 8%

Teleop

89.4 59%

Endgame

50.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.3pts

Blue projected score151.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.3
Score range: 129–192
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 129.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.5Season APEX372.7

26.3Auto11.8

82.6Teleop89.4

44.2Endgame50.7

68Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	113	76
endgame	59	43
foul	20	0
total	212	137

Result

Final score

212 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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