Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.03 – 58.61

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.4 ±11.2

3464Sim-City

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 10.16Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX -17.49Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 131.36Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.6 ±12.7

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -26.79Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 46.73Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

663Power Sharks

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 38.67Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3464, 3182, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3464, 3182, 6328

Auto

29.8 23%

Teleop

67.8 53%

Endgame

29.9 23%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5902, 9729, 663

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5902, 9729, 663

Auto

13.9 31%

Teleop

14.3 32%

Endgame

16.2 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score58.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.4
Score range: 36–147
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.4Season APEX180.6

29.8Auto13.9

67.8Teleop14.3

29.9Endgame16.2

12Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	25
teleop	160	37
endgame	21	27
foul	0	0
total	250	89

Result

Final score

250 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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