Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.36 – 51.69

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.4 ±10.4

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 34.92Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 2.62Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 101.82Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.2 ±11.7

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 61.01Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 23.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -33.1Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10063, 3623, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10063, 3623, 8013

Auto

20.8 16%

Teleop

77.3 58%

Endgame

34.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 4905, 1099

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5962, 4905, 1099

Auto

22.0 44%

Teleop

26.0 52%

Endgame

1.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.4pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.7
Score range: 29–162
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.4Season APEX411.2

20.8Auto22

77.3Teleop26

34.8Endgame1.8

52Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	81	38
endgame	46	7
foul	0	0
total	144	62

Result

Final score

144 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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