Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.77 – 51.66

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.3 ±12.8

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 103.89Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10393Foxborough High School

Season APEX 66.6Event APEX 29.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -16.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.8 ±10.4

3182Athena's Warriors

Season APEX 70Event APEX -29.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 55.43Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 25.41Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 10393, 4169

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 10393, 4169

Auto

26.8 21%

Teleop

62.9 49%

Endgame

38.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3182, 5422, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3182, 5422, 10063

Auto

3.4 6%

Teleop

39.4 69%

Endgame

14.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.8pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.1
Score range: 29–140
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.3Season APEX335.8

26.8Auto3.4

62.9Teleop39.4

38.2Endgame14.6

71Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	15
teleop	22	72
endgame	23	40
foul	75	0
total	130	127

Result

Final score

130 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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