Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.16 – 12.53

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.9 ±10

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 38.64Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 53.27Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 107.25Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168 ±11.6

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 33.75Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5902The Wire Clippers

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -19.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3623The Robomingos

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX -1.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 157, 5962, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 157, 5962, 1768

Auto

29.5 16%

Teleop

102.9 54%

Endgame

57.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 5902, 3623

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2064, 5902, 3623

Auto

-1.7 65%

Teleop

-13.6 100%

Endgame

12.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.2pts

Blue projected score12.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186.6
Score range: -10–222
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.9Season APEX168

29.5Auto-1.7

102.9Teleop-13.6

57.9Endgame12.7

53Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	10
teleop	147	15
endgame	27	0
foul	15	5
total	246	30

Result

Final score

246 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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