Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.16 – 174.17

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590 ±8.8

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX -8.16Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 166.94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX -25.62Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.9 ±10.5

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 30.94Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 122.7Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 20.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8708, 3467, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8708, 3467, 9644

Auto

20.1 16%

Teleop

66.1 51%

Endgame

42.8 33%

Strengths

· 3467 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1735, 6328, 5347

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1735, 6328, 5347

Auto

46.6 27%

Teleop

88.5 52%

Endgame

35.3 21%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.2pts

Blue projected score174.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41
Score range: 111–196
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590Season APEX504.9

20.1Auto46.6

66.1Teleop88.5

42.8Endgame35.3

54Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	7
teleop	196	132
endgame	63	70
foul	0	5
total	317	214

Result

Final score

317 – 214

Prediction missed · off by 111.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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