Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.24 – 208.31

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550 ±9.9

6620Voltage Vikings

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 71.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX -19.91Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 127.8Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.9 ±9.4

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 100.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 47.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 60.03Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6620, 9644, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6620, 9644, 6328

Auto

44.3 24%

Teleop

106.8 59%

Endgame

30.5 17%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1768, 4905, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1768, 4905, 1071

Auto

19.8 9%

Teleop

126.6 60%

Endgame

64.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.2pts

Blue projected score208.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.1
Score range: 158–229
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550Season APEX658.9

44.3Auto19.8

106.8Teleop126.6

30.5Endgame64.7

82Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	43
teleop	46	106
endgame	34	60
foul	5	15
total	128	224

Result

Final score

128 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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