Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
63.77 – 148.38
26%74%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
92 – 97
Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 102.2Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -46.33Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 7.9Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 85.41Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX -0.23Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 63.2Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1119, 1099, 5347
39
/ 100 compatProjected
63.8 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 1119, 1099, 5347
Auto
15.1 23%
Teleop
25.0 38%
Endgame
25.8 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5422, 8708, 5962
62
/ 100 compatProjected
148.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 5422, 8708, 5962
Auto
3.3 2%
Teleop
115.9 75%
Endgame
34.7 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score63.8pts
Blue projected score148.4pts
Red win probability26%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -84.6
- Score range
- 42–170
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
261.5Season APEX366.4
15.1Auto3.3
25Teleop115.9
25.8Endgame34.7
47Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 3 | 32 |
| teleop | 52 | 55 |
| endgame | 22 | 10 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 92 | 97 |
Result
Final score
92 – 97
Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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