Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
109.36 – 43.73
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
59 – 92
Prediction missed · off by 49.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±11
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 16.52Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 105Event APEX 68.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 24.09Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -4.65Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 46.06Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.4Event APEX 2.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8708, 1071, 663
55
/ 100 compatProjected
109.4 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 8708, 1071, 663
Auto
14.4 13%
Teleop
74.1 67%
Endgame
22.0 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4169, 5962, 175
34
/ 100 compatProjected
43.7 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4169, 5962, 175
Auto
0.9 3%
Teleop
16.1 62%
Endgame
8.9 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score109.4pts
Blue projected score43.7pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 65.6
- Score range
- 21–132
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
258.5Season APEX296.9
14.4Auto0.9
74.1Teleop16.1
22Endgame8.9
104Consistency115
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 27 |
| teleop | 20 | 48 |
| endgame | 18 | 17 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 59 | 92 |
Result
Final score
59 – 92
Prediction missed · off by 49.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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