Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.73 – 161.02

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.8 ±9.4

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 87.77Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 68.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 79.97Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.4 ±12.4

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 137.14Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -47.08Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 70.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 1768, 1119

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 1768, 1119

Auto

41.3 18%

Teleop

143.9 61%

Endgame

50.2 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 1099, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6328, 1099, 9729

Auto

44.8 28%

Teleop

98.4 62%

Endgame

14.8 9%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.7pts

Blue projected score161pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.7
Score range: 139–259
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 124.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.8Season APEX406.4

41.3Auto44.8

143.9Teleop98.4

50.2Endgame14.8

91Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	66
teleop	138	56
endgame	118	18
foul	5	5
total	304	145

Result

Final score

304 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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