Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.81 – 178.83

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.8 ±10

5347Gryphons

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 42.96Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 107.61Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 22.24Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.4 ±10.4

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 52.17Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 33.46Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 93.2Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5347, 4909, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5347, 4909, 8708

Auto

32.3 19%

Teleop

104.4 61%

Endgame

34.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 3566, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5962, 3566, 8013

Auto

25.7 15%

Teleop

104.3 59%

Endgame

45.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.8pts

Blue projected score178.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 151–201
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.8Season APEX361.4

32.3Auto25.7

104.4Teleop104.3

34.4Endgame45.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	95	84
endgame	33	29
foul	0	0
total	150	144

Result

Final score

150 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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